It Was All About Trust

The Work Starts Today Mr President (elect)

Deep strategic thinker and nemesis of America's enemies and erstwhile friends, John Bolton, has penned a very useful note to Barack Obama. Despite Obama being extremely inexperienced in Foreign Affairs Bolton points out the Obama Administration will be full on with Foreign Relations for all its four years.

Presciently Bolton informs Obama America's enemies will not give him a honeymoon and it is likely the testing of weak points has already started.

The full letter is here:

Congratulations, Mr President-elect, on your victory. After the longest presidential campaign in our history, you now have 77 days to prepare to govern. While foreigners might see eleven weeks as an eternity, you know only too well that it is precious little time to select your top advisers and then subject them to our cumbersome FBI and ethics screening of their backgrounds, their finances, their potential conflicts of interest, and whatever skeletons are hanging in their closets.

Then, of course, they need to learn the intricacies of their respective responsibilities, and, for many, begin the Senate confirmation process, which may take months. Time is already growing short.

The current economic turmoil will consume a significant amount of your Transition Team’s time and effort, and properly so. But in the wider world, our adversaries and even our friends are actively considering how to advance their interests as your January 20 Inauguration approaches.

You will have four full years of foreign-policy issues and problems, such as the rise of China and India, the decline of the European Union, and the role of Russia, but I suggest the following as priorities in your first Hundred Days:

You are the decider.

Although President Bush tried to make this his mantra, his Administration was plagued in its first term by incoherence in national security decision making. Crisp decisions were not made, strong differences of opinion among Cabinet Secretaries were not resolved, and policy too often oscillated between conflicting options with no consistency or direction.

Ironically, the Bush Administration’s second term erred in the opposite direction, almost eliminating differences in advice to the President until there was really only one voice in his ear at critical points. You must avoid both pitfalls, and you must make that clear immediately. You must resolve disagreements among your advisers, and not allow drift, and you must insist on discipline once you make a decision.

If anyone disagrees with this approach, you may invite them to do the honourable thing and resign, or not sign on in the first place. Iran Tehran’s ruling mullahs have no intention of affording you a “honeymoon”. They will move quickly to test your resolve both on their rapidly progressing nuclear weapons program and on their massive support for international terrorism.

Nearly six years of European diplomacy has failed to slow Iran’s nuclear program. Five UN Security Council Resolutions demanding that Iran halt uranium enrichment (and imposing risibly weak sanctions) have had essentially no effect.

Russia in particular is using Iran as the sharp tip of the spear to disrupt our policy throughout the Middle East. Moscow will watch what you do just as intently as Tehran. Any new President will be advised to engage in at least some renewed diplomatic effort. But do not be fooled. Insist on three months of intense, good-faith negotiations, and we will soon find out if Iran is serious.

If not, which I believe to be demonstrably the case, suspend negotiations quickly. Then, ratchet up efforts on the only options, unattractive though they are, that have a chance of stopping Iran from acquiring deliverable nuclear weapons: regime change or the targeted use of military force against Iran’s nuclear program.

If you wait longer, you will surely have the worst of all worlds: Iran with nuclear weapons, and an even greater threat of nuclear proliferation as other Middle Eastern states draw the appropriate conclusions from its success at thwarting our non-proliferation efforts.

North Korea

We are kidding ourselves if we think North Korea will ever voluntarily give up its nuclear weapons program. Even during the campaign, as the Bush Administration was squandering our negotiating leverage, North Korea continued to try to proliferate ballistic missile technology.

As with Iran, there is essentially no chance that Pyongyang will be talked out of its nuclear weapons. Moreover, with the world in near-complete ignorance about the state of Kim Jong-il’s health or plans for regime succession, even more uncertainty surrounds the intentions of this prison camp of a country. Expecting that the long-running Six-Party Talks will “solve” the North Korean problem is a delusion.

Instead, you must deal directly with China as the highest priority in our bilateral relationship, and insist that we act together to eliminate the current regime in Pyongyang and is nuclear program, and ultimately reunite the Korean Peninsula.

China needs to understand that leaving the North with nuclear weapons is not an option, and that their inaction will have an increasingly negative impact on our bilateral relationship. Beijing alone can change North Korea, and it needs to get started.

America’s Image

Do not let global “public opinion” about the United States, from Albania to Zimbabwe, dissuade you from doing what you think is right for America. Your job is to defend and advance our interests and values, a task which invariably will displease our adversaries, and even many of our friends, especially those who wish we were, well, more European in our behaviour and attitudes.

What we must do, however, is more effectively advocate the policies you will be pursuing. Failure at both the political level in Washington and abroad, and at the level of the career Foreign Service, made the Bush Administration one of the most tongue-tied Presidencies in our history. We should try to shift international public opinion to support our policies, not modify our policies to try to satisfy international public opinion. The State Department will not understand this distinction. You must.

A final word

Many U.S. and foreign commentators have been quick to tell us that America is in decline, and that our role in the future will not be what it once was. They will be correct only if you fall prey to their pessimism.

And if you do, rest assured that they will shortly turn critical of “American isolationism,” just as they have been critical in recent years of “American unilateralism.” You will never satisfy them. Defend America and its friends, and the rest will take care of itself.

Labour donor is Asian organised crime boss - Latest TGIF about to break

Ian Wishart is trailing Instalment Two of the immigration corruption saga that is pointing straight at the heart of the Labour Government.

Wishart is doing a marvelous job of putting a little bit out there each week and following up with a new devastating revelation. I'll bet this week is not the complete story - we have two more weeks to run. Next week will be huge if he is following this strategy.

I wonder what spin the ninth floor will run tomorrow afternoon - given they'll know more of the story than you and I - but probably not as much as Wishart - the paranoia must be palpable. The fear will be picking up those neck hairs, real nice.

Here's what Ian is saying:

Last week we gave you a heads up about part one of a major political scandal involving two cabinet ministers, a former minister and a mysterious Chinese migrant awarded NZ citizenship on ministerial intervention…

This weekend, Part Two of the story breaks: TGIF Edition reveals the migrant’s REAL name, his past, and the fact that he’s an Asian organised crime boss who not only donated to more Labour MPs than Helen Clark admitted last weekend, but who also employed a honey-trap in his bid to gain political influence within Labour.

Forget tinpot controversies about impoverished Thai tilers. Forget about whether Owen Glenn gave Winston $100K. You’ll learn tomorrow how New Zealand’s immigration system has been compromised by Asian organised crime buying residency, citizenship and political favours, and turning New Zealand into a money-laundering financial hub.

Like we said last week, this is the biggest political scandal of recent times, and it’s unfolding only in the pages of TGIF Edition.

Don’t miss out, subscribe now at http://www.tgifedition.com

Clark and Cullen in charge the last time inflation hit 5%

Eighteen years ago New Zealand's inflation rate hit 5% - Helen Clark was Deputy PM. Michael Cullen was Associate Minister of Finance. These clowns have learned nothing.

BNZ For Sale?

I have been hearing strengthening rumours that the National Australia Bank, BNZ's owners, have it up for sale. Part of a plan to sell down and strengthen the mother ship.

Let's hope Toll's Paul Little has not been advising the nab Board on how to negotiate with the New Zealand government - particularly Michael Cullen - I can just see Cullen and Clark adding this to their pile of nationalised businesses.

Any others heard this?

Labour's Prostate Shower Policy

In a very amusing way a fellow guest at a dinner party last night said Labour's Prostate Shower Policy was the pits. Prostate referred to the dribbly showers Labour is promoting.

Could catch on as a slogan.

iPredict not looking Good for Clark

I have been mining a rich vein of late at iPredict where I have been able to make good money (+11% real) or probably about +250% on an annualised basis.

Basically I have been continually shorting Labour as the next Prime Minister. Happily for me my predictions are proving apposite and her stock continues to drop. I think she is in a slow glide to the bottom.

Starry, Starry night - Don McLean - Vincent - Devonport Wharf

In a good poser for Saturday Whaleoil has passed on his latest scraps from his deepthroats at MFAT and the Beehive.

For my perspective I suggested the links might be a dodgy developer called Don McLean is tied up with Winston? Perhaps he was the developer of the now defunct Devonport Wharf emporium and now banned fishing spot.

Another thought is Phil Goff (or Filk Off) rhymes with Gough (but it is Vincent van Gogh as in Go). Perhaps it is another emerging scandal with the Navy - which parks near by the Devonport Wharf. In fact whatever assets they have are parked up due to Phil's party's poor procurement and purchasing.

Lastly - perhaps this is a BBQ at Phil's with his old 1970's varsity mates from Princes Street Labour Branch - plotting the demise of helengrad and organising a putsch.

In Western Australia the Liberals in coalition with the Nationals have narrowly taken the parliament after only installing a new Liberal leader 5 weeks out from the election, removing decades of corrupt Labor rule.

Italian model plans to sell virginity for 1m euros

A stunning italian model born in Sophia Loren's hometown, Naples has offered her virginity for one Million euros. The proceeds are to buy a house in Rome and pay for acting classes. She may need the classes before the debut!



Showgirl and men's magazine model Miss Raffella Fico, 20, told an Italian magazine: "I can't wait to see who's going to pull out the money to have me." Senorina Fico has appeared in the Italian version of Big Brother earlier this year.

"I don't know what it's like to have sex," she told the magazine, Chi, adding that if the man who bought her virginity was ugly then she would quickly get over it.

"If I don't like him I'll just have a glass of wine and forget about it," said the aspiring actress.

Her brother vouches she is virga intacta -

"She's never had a boyfriend. I swear on my mother's grave. She's a devout Catholic and prays to Padre Pio every night," her brother told the magazine.

Short and convenient memories

Matthew Hooton's excellent post last night identifying the NZ First policy approach as Nazism - resonated well with my own concerns.

Seeing Clark welcomed by those old biddies at Grey Power and hearing their positive claims about Winston Peters appalled me. The reason? Those older women would have had brothers, boyfriends and (later) husbands who fought and many were killed, in WW11 against the Hilter and his Nazi regime. The point of that war was to remove that scourge. Their families made the ultimate sacrifice.

The very tactics Hilter used, as well paraphrased by Mathew, are exactly the tactics these people support applaud in Winston.

First, yes, I do believe that Winston Peters is an evil influence on New Zealand politics and the use of the word “axis” was entirely deliberate, chosen as being more appropriate than “allies” or even “bloc” for the regime he sustains.

They are the ones who should be appalled. Their brothers, boyfriends and husbands if dead will be spinning in their graves. If alive they have stopped thinking.

I am told that, soon after Peters’ appointment as Treasurer, then Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash met with his new boss and said he had read New Zealand First’s manifesto and speeches and, assuming Peters was serious, wanted to set up a process to review the RBA and the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand. My source (and you can guess who it may be) said that Peters replied: “Don’t worry about all that. The next election is three years away.”

It is sick alright.

All Peters’ themes continue to be Hitleresque. Just read “Conspiracy of Conspiracies“. The imagery is right out of Germany in the 1930s. There is an evil other - “they” - who are trying to harm you. They are foreign. Secretive. And involved in finance. In 1930s Germany terms, he means “the Jews”. Chris is an historian. He knows this better than most. Yet he defends the Nazi.

Chris of course is Chris Trotter.

Watch yourself Clark so far 2 policemen have died on your watch

In an extraordinary departure from facts, decency and good taste Helen Clark has told a Grey Power meeting that if National was the Government 60 soldiers would have died in Iraq. What utter fanciful and indecent thinking. She later said it was a "back of the envelope" estimate. Good thing she wasn't in charge at any of the battles of the Somme such is her dispassionate view of the armed forces. Her concern was not for the soldiers but to score extremely nasty and cheap political points. Low politics. Clark also forgets she committed soldiers to Iraq - post invasion.

Australia who did commit forces to Iraq had a KIA count of ZERO.

What we do know is two brave policemen have lost their lives on Clark's watch - blood on hands Helen using your twisted thinking? I think her body count beats the previous administration.

PM's Department knew months ago or rather last year about Peters's Vegas visit.

Whaleoil's deepthroat is close to the mark and identifies who knew what and when. MFAT at the highest levels was well aware Peters was AWOL. So was Clark.

Just another lie. This is the usual Clark M.O. - as we are witnessing again.

1. Deny any knowledge.
2. As the dogs get close admit some recent knowledge
3. Use a fall guy to make the admissions - usually along the lines of no one asked the question before. Perfect example seen today following the questioning of Kathryn Street by Ian Wishart
4. Float rumours Peters may be toast.
5 Do nothing - hunker down.

PM Clark Knew Two Friday's ago Peters Took Unauthorised International Travel

Ian Wishart's blog has quoted the PM's press secretary that the PM only found out "two Friday's" ago that her Foreign Minister took a personal side trip to Las Vegas to watch a fight while on his way to Singapore from Berlin....yeah right - he disappeared for say four days - into the depths of the US - and she had no idea he was not on the aircraft to Singapore?

Either way he and she are toast - he because the side trip did not have authority - she because she knew at least ten days ago and as is becoming habit forming said nothing.

About to get kicked out of The House - shortly to be booted out of home.

Cactus Kate has an interesting post. She has found a lifeboat being launched on the foundering NZ1. The highly polished floors are a clue. No dust in this joint.

Perhaps they are cashing up in case the calls to visit Level 2, Duthie Whyte Building, Corner Mayoral Drive and Wakefield Street, Auckland, becomes too hard to refuse.

Clark Might Sack Peters Now

As we know Clark has no loyalty to anyone - everything she does is a carefully calculated step. Even her marriage was a convenience to suit her electoral ambitions - by her own words.

With NZ First now plumbing depths below the margin of error and likely not in the next parliament she has to do something - Peters must now have absolutely no appeal, offer no options to Labour and has no leverage himself. If she really believes her current polling is because of the Peters/Glenn drama she will cauterise the suppurating sore that is Winston on Tuesday after Henry's (non) evidence to the Privileges Committee. If she doesn't may be Owen Glenn and his fragrant EA Laura Ede will come back to deal with Labour's latest smears.

Nats Surge Ahead National 53 % Labour 35%

Confirming feedback off the street, and unscientific polls like the Herald and Stuff, Colmar-Brunton poll has Clark's torpid, lying regime in deep trouble.

Clark has lost out to Key in the presidential stakes. Game is half over - after two days.

The campaign photo has not been retouched - Yeah Right

Laura Ede

Today's NZ Herald carrys a backgrounder on Laura Ede. Miss Ede is Owen Glenn's Executive Assistant and has been a major attraction I suspect with many following the story. Seems she had the media agog at the Auckland Press Conference. As a former physiotherapist may be she could put a few necks back in joint afterwards. She apparently declined to answer whether she had been crowned Miss North Harbour in 1999. With Laura and his crucifix Owen Glenn is ready for battle.

Recalling phoning Winston Peters on the fateful day and prepared to sign an affidavit affirming the same made Winston's denials that much more tawdry.

You can trust Helen to keep Winston’s secrets - heh!

Clark rules Peters in to her coalition NZ Herald

It will be much ado about nothing as neither Clark nor Peter will figure in a request to form a government.

Why Did Condi Make a Personal Visit?

Generally the US is fairly assiduous in not being seen to take sides in domestic politics. Generally this means they avoid calling by when elections are due. At the time the late July Rice visit was mooted many saw it as unlikely for electoral courtesy reasons and because our Foreign Minister was getting deeper in the doo-do by the day, the liklihood of a visit was probably remote.

Despite this background Rice did in fact come and as we know was subjected to the ignominy of watching Peters's press conference descend into farce as domestic questions dominated around his deepening funding scandals - Remember the quote to a journo - "watch it sunshine" or WTTE . All very unedifying. The Hive carried all these perambulations well.

Condi could have gone straight to Samoa for the PIF meeting - it was after all a US Air Force jet with little need for more than fuel from here - if that.

Now as we watch things play out in the last days of the Helengrad regime I have been thinking - - maybe - just maybe - Condi had a more diplomatic mission - one conducted in the old way. A personal contact as emissary of GWB to the head of the NZ Government - anti-nuke Clark.

Condi's job was to tell our PM, Miss Clark, in person, that unless she got Filk Off into line on the nuclear front - particularly helping "our" friends in India - matters would quickly drop out of Helen's "conscientious and competent" hands as a number of cover-ups in the US started to get headlines; at an awkward time.

Weird isn't it that Clark, Filk Off, King, Mallard, Cullen and all the anti-war gang - people of principle? - have rolled over and granted a major non-signatory of the Nuclear Proliferastion Treaty an open goal. Fishy eh!

There are rumours aplenty in the blogosphere of the dirty dealings of Clark and Co - the VRWC is in full cry - tally ho - or is that Talley Ho?