Focus on MMP May be Misguided

The election is looking very interesting and I think the Brash discussion about it being a Two Horse race is proving either prophetic or prescient.

Think about this:
Not unreasonable assumption:
NZ First and Greens only get 4.99% each and no electorate seats
Act is the only minor party to get an electorate seat.

The results will be:
Election result Seats in the House
ACT 1 Seat Party 1% 1
Labour 38% 51
Maori 3 3% 4
National 46% 62
Progressive 1 0.5% 1
United Future 1 1.5% 1
Total 121

Result
National 62 seats - Govern alone!

If Act fail to get an electorate seat - redistributing their vote causes Labour to gain a seat and the Maori Party overhang is eliminated.
National still with 62 seats

Tell me the electorate are not conspiring to make this happen!!!

Apologies for layout - cannot get tabs with Blogger