I reckon there is a 20 per cent chance a Government won't be formed

Winnie's long and short term prospects may be best served by going back to the electorate now. Without a complicit NZF, Clark will struggle to convince the GG she has the confidence of the House. Winnie will be obliterated in 2008 if a coalition with Labour doesn't travel well. He is out of the electorate business. He may fancy chances better to go back to the electorate now with an agreement with Labour not to stand in Tauranga.

Winnie may decide to let Clark's government building fall flat, avoid any fallout by staying loose and taking his chances at the resultant election...